Unannounced spending is a standard feature of budgets, and the 2024 Federal Budget is likely to be little different.
The largest part of this — The Conservative Bias Allowance — accounts for the tendency of governments to underestimate the costs of project delivery. In effect, this makes Budget projections more sound by providing a fiscal buffer between policy delivery, and the Budget bottom line.
“Decisions taken but not yet announced” (DTBNYA) form the side of the government’s contingency reserve. This is comprised of yet-to-be-disclosed policy decisions and those whose costs cannot be published — usually for security reasons.
DTBNYA is a part of the Budget often subject to speculation about buried information and pork barrelling. Sometimes the conspiracies even turn out to be true.
Government engagement group Tanck makes the case that DTBNYA is a useful as well as fraught part of budgets — even if unpopular. Counterintuitively, it offers an opportunity for greater accountability around budgets through the democratic and consultative processes.
Tanck executive director Angus Crowther said the 2024 Budget has to be viewed in terms of the looming Queensland election and upcoming federal election.
“It’s fairly apparent elections require spending to be won. They need good policies too, but ideas require funding to bring them to life,” he said.
“Going into an election, I think we’re going to see that the DTBNYA line is going to be a bit bigger than in previous years because the government’s going to want to give itself some extra funds to prop up issues as they arise — perhaps not knowing what they are until they come.
This doesn’t mean DTBNYA is something that can be safely ignored. Often, policies remain unannounced because politicians are waiting for a moment of maximum impact to make the announcement.
But the alternatives are far worse. These announcements are going to be made, regardless of whether they are budgeted for or not, and this provides a measure of accountability around the process.
“Governments want to present themselves as fiscally responsible … if some media outlet during the election campaign starts to tally the cost of all the commitments they’re making, they can make the case they’re being fiscally irresponsible,” he said.
“But if they can say ‘this is budgeted for, we’ve planned for this’, they can start to shift the narrative.”
The problem, according to Crowther, is these processes are often captured by the loudest voices in the private sector, eager to direct government money into their own coffers.
He said more engagement with community groups and NGOs would ensure the best value for money on government spending announcements.
“A number of the issues we’re continuing to experience — both social and environmental — are because we don’t have the right people with the right ideas in the room. There are too many vested interests taking up too much of the space,” he said.
“The organisations I work with are so often given the line there’s no money. The reality is, there is money. What there isn’t is political will.
“Don’t accept that. You can see these larger vested interests are receiving these supports.”
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